Abstract

Russian cheese producers strive to increase their production. A sustainable best-experience raw material base can solve this problem. The authors analyzed the raw material supply in the leading cheese-producing countries in order to develop a system of new targets for Russian cheesemakers.
The study featured the performance indicators of the world's leading cheese producers in terms of raw material supply. It relied on scientific, regulatory, and legislative documents. The study also included databases (2017–2022) published by the Federal State Statistics Service, the dairy economic consulting firm CLAL, and the Atlas Big site of international and regional data statistics. The data were processed by statistical methods, e.g., generalization, systematization, distribution, etc., and econometrics, e.g., correlation, regression analysis, etc. The authors calculated the statistical characteristics of raw material supply indicators, assessed the interfactorial relationships, and obtained regression equations to describe these relationships in quantitative terms.
The calculations involved the volumes of total and per capita cheese production in various regions of the world. The group of leaders included twenty countries with an average production per capita of 26.5 kg. The key indicators of raw material supply included milk production per capita, livestock, structure, and milk cattle productivity. The research revealed some raw material problems in the domestic cheese industry. For instance, domestic milk production per capita (206.3 kg) is below the average for the leading countries (489.4 kg). This issue is associated with the low milk cattle productivity, which is 4492 kg in the Russian Federation and 7061 kg in the leading cheese-producing countries. The regression equations used determination coefficients of ≥ 0.8 to calculate the main parameters of the domestic cheese-making base that would meet dairy food security criteria. A milk production of 388 kg per capita proved to be the minimal amount that would guarantee food security in the domestic cheese sector. However, the existing number of cows (7.9 million) means that the milk productivity cannot fall below 7146 kg. The required value can be obtained by improving diets and selection.
The analytical methods developed in this research provided highly reliable results. These results can solve the problems of providing Russian cheesemakers with a sustainable raw material base, as well as set new targets for agro-industrial dairy enterprises.

Keywords

Cheese-making, production, consumption, raw materials, milk, livestock, dairy productivity, correlation, regression

FUNDING

The study was part of State Task of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Minobrnauka) No. FSSW-2020-0009 “New methods for sustainable competitiveness of commodity circulation enterprises in the digital economy”.

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